In a recent episode of The Zogby Report, John and Jeremy Zogby from the trendspotting research company and national online survey company John Zogby Strategies explored the challenges of forecasting the highly competitive 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Both candidates are tied at 47% in the latest polling data, making this race one of the closest in recent history.
While Harris received a small boost following the Democratic convention and her debate performances, the contest remains incredibly tight. The Zogbys emphasized that the race, particularly in key battleground states, shows no clear leader, as any differences between the candidates are well within the margin of error. This deadlock, they said, underscores how unpredictable the outcome is likely to be.
The pollsters questioned whether the race is moving at all. Although minor shifts in polling numbers could suggest one candidate is gaining ground, the Zogbys warned that these changes are often exaggerated by the media. In reality, the polling data shows no significant momentum for either Trump or Harris, as both remain locked in place.
Adding to the uncertainty is the potential for a “black swan” event—something unexpected that could alter the course of the election. They noted that geopolitical developments, like the war in Ukraine or tensions in the Middle East, and economic issues such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, could sway undecided voters in the final weeks.
Given these unknowns, the Zogbys advised against making firm predictions. As in past elections, last-minute surprises and shifts among undecided voters could easily change the outcome. For now, with both candidates neck and neck, this election remains entirely up for grabs.